Asean Free Trade Agreement Implementation For Indonesian Trading Performance: A Gravity Model Approach

Penulis: Yuventus Effendi, Pusat Kebijakan Ekonomi Makro

Oleh : Yuventus Effendi

One objective of the AFTA implementation is to reduce trading constraints by reducing import tariffs among ASEAN’s members with the assumption that if tariffs are lower or zero, there should be an increase in intra-trading value among ASEAN members. This study examines whether the implementation of the AFTA has had any impact on Indonesia’s export performance and ‘behind the border’ constraints contribution in Indonesia’s exports such as customs administrations. The study uses the gravity model approach with a stochastic frontier analysis which is different from previous research about Indonesia’s trading performance that uses OLS estimation. The results show that, empirically, GDP, distance, population, exchange rate, and membership in ASEAN significantly affect Indonesia’s trading with partner country. Furthermore, stochastic frontier analysis’ results show that ‘behind the border’ constraints decrease overtime. However, Indonesia’s exports is under trade with all ASEAN countries which indicates the low utilisation of AFTA. On the other hand, Indonesia’s exports are over trade with China and almost at optimal level of exports with the US, Japan, and the Netherlands. The implication of this study is that the Indonesian government should promote more exports with ASEAN countries to accomplish the objectives of the AFTA declaration two decades ago.

File Terkait:
ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (299 KB)